M.O.W.C.A.

One of the things forgotten in America today is that war is the normal state of being for man. Throughout the history of the human race we find one war after another, and very few, if any, real periods of peace. In fact, the only time we find real peace is when nations are prepared for war, and will not go to war, because their prospective opponents are too well armed, and the risk and cost are far too high.

Due to this uncomfortable fact, it makes absolute sense to always prepare for war. This does not mean that we want to go to war. It simply means that we are prepared in every way should that eventuality occur. We should now note that prior to every surprise attack, peace overtures by the attacker have been present. This also is our warning to be prepared for war. We should understand that man is not a peaceful creature, but rather a quite angry and hostile one. Even the nicest of persons can be, and are provoked to angry and violent responses. All that need be done, is the right provocations be practiced upon them.

This then brings us to Gaza and the Israel/Hamas conflict that dominates the news of late. Now, it is never good that wars occur. But, since they do occur, one might as well learn from them. Given the state of America at the moment, what with a rights hostile administration ready to take office, a rather large segment of the population being illegal foreigners, overt and hostile moves by Russia and China, and the financial structure of the entire world about to disappear into a bottomless hole, the Israel/Hamas conflict is an opportunity to learn about modern asymmetrical warfare.

Don’t get me wrong, the suffering is not good, and this particular conflict is utterly unnecessary, as all Hamas would have to do is agree to live peacefully with Israel. Nevertheless, the war is happening, as wars do occur with an endless regularity. Therefore, we might as well learn what we can, in hopes of providing a deterrence to such an eventuality. After all, if your enemy knows that you are prepared to fight both a conventional, symmetrical war, and an unconventional, asymmetrical war on your own soil (let alone everywhere else) they are persuaded that it is better to spend their monies on building widgets for consumers, instead of tanks, guns and other assorted implements of war. Of course, they should understand that we are a peaceful people, but nonetheless prepared for war — and willing to prosecute it to the bitter end if need be.

To analyze this conflict, we do need to divorce ourselves somewhat from our loyalties so we are not blinded by favoritism and thus miss important, even if tiny, details that often make the difference between a successful, and unsuccessful encounter in combat. To effect this, we need to understand that the eventualities of war may lead to being in the position of either one of the combatants. One could be in the position of Israel, as a militiaman, fighting alongside of regular forces, or as in the case of Russia in WWII, behind the lines in occupied territory, supporting the effort of regular, conventional forces to regain lost territory. On the other hand, one could find himself fighting a numerically superior force that is also technologically superior as well, which is the position of Hamas.

It should not be necessary for me to state at this point which position is the more favored one. However, very rarely in this world do we get our favors, and we need to be prepared for either event. The first thing then, is to understand that war is a mental state in which, if we are not prepared for when it comes physically, we will not prosecute it well. We can expect to lose our homes, family, friends, and general way of life. Those things simply tend to go by the wayside when the bombs fall.

We should also expect an overwhelming, nasty response on the part of our adversary. Don’t expect them to play nice. That is not what war is about. Hamas is already crying about Israel and the destruction Israel has visited upon them, and in reality Israel is playing nice. I seriously wonder what Hamas would do if say, 48 B-52 Bombers visited Gaza dropping strings of 2000 lb. bombs? Israel simply does not have that kind of conventional capability, and thus cannot effect that kind of air campaign. Plainly, Hamas is not prepared for that kind of heavy conventional response. You know, we did worse than that to North Vietnam during Linebacker II, and somehow, they survived and functioned. However, had we continued that campaign for much longer they would have been brought to the brink of destruction. We did do that to the Iraqi forces in the First Gulf War, and it devastated the morale of the Iraqi Army, not to mention considerable destruction of their equipment and supplies.

The questions for us are these:

What if we are on the receiving end of such an air campaign as that?

What do we do during, and then after?

What would our warfighting capability look like after an air strike on that order of magnitude?

If we are not mentally prepared for that, we will lose our will to fight — almost immediately.

There are many possibilities to explore here, but the first order of business is to be mentally prepared for what may come. After all, many folks in this country cease to function after a natural disaster, virtually give up and give in, never taking responsibility, and never being proactive about recovering from the disaster. This does not bode well for our ability to withstand invasion and war on our own soil.

Watch the Gaza conflict and the IDF videos on YouTube, and put yourself in the position of the combatants — are you prepared for what you see happening there, to happen here?

The following video is of several IAF strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza during Operation Cast Lead.

There are a number of things in this video to note that are of interest to anyone potentially involved in a combat zone in urban areas.

Immediately it should be noted that the “camouflaged” anti-aircraft gun on the rooftop (which is a flat rooftop) is not so camouflaged from the sensors and LL/IR TV of the aircraft/drone that the camera is mounted on. For camouflage to be effective, it must actually mask what one is trying to hide. In this case, it is obvious that Hamas does not understand that principle.

About 18 seconds into the video, the scene shows a mortar mounted on a rooftop. Typical with Middle Eastern houses, this roof has low (about waist to chest high) walls around it. I’m relatively certain the operators of the mortar forgot all about eyes in the sky, or they thought the walls would hide them sufficiently. Guess what? That only works IF your opponent doesn’t have airpower and virtually constant surveillance. Notice also that you can clearly see the mortar discharge, launching the shell.

30 seconds into the video the scene switches to a truck mounted AAA unit. Again, its not really clear the terrain around the truck, but sitting still and firing blithely away without regard to the ever-present opposition air force, is a sure recipe for getting sent out of this world. And, that is the predictable result as the missile approaches from the left at high speed, and slams into the truck.

Following is some pretty generic shots of mortars/missiles Hamas tried to hide between houses. However, I think Hamas really doesn’t get the fact that metal tubes full of solid propellant/explosives have a fundamentally different IR signature than your typical small shrub or trash can. One would have to be quite creative to actually hide such a thing.

56 seconds into the video is a tunnel strike. There are large secondary explosions indicating the presence of propellant/explosives in the tunnel. This does raise a question for anyone:

How is it Israel knows where the tunnels are?

There are a few ways I can think of, one of which is ground-penetrating radar. I’m pretty certain most of the tunnels are not more than 50 feet below the surface. This is certainly within reach of ground-penetrating radar. A tunnel will show up prominently on the display, even when “filled” with explosive. A second way is good ole HUMINT, which is boots on the ground actually locating the tunnel, through some social interaction. Third, unusual activity in and around the area. Generally the volume involved in smuggling significant quantities of anything will reveal that a passageway is present simply because of too many persons, with too much movement, in too regular a pattern.

There are a couple more tunnel strikes with impressive explosions.

2:08 into the video shows a rocket located immediately adjacent to a mosque building, and a subsequent rocket launch near the mosque. According to the Geneva Convention (which Hamas is not a signatory) you cannot do this. However, one must remember that in war, “rules” frequently are thrown down, if not thrown out altogether. In this case, Hamas is virtually “daring” Israel to strike the rocket launcher so Hamas can gain the propaganda advantage by accusing Israel of deliberately targeting a mosque.

The video ends with showing a rocket launcher and the IAF apparently in the process of striking the launcher.

From the point of view of studying how vulnerable ground targets are to airpower, this video gives good indication that not a whole lot is actually hidden from prying eyes. One of the things I frequently note on all IDF strike videos is the remarkable laxity in Hamas in attempting to effectively hide their movements from airspace threats.

Thus, one of the basic lessons to take from the video is: Ignore airpower at your peril.